The 2025 calendar 12 months of UFC begins this Saturday, January eleventh, at The Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. The extremely anticipated begin of the 2025 struggle 12 months begins with a rematch of ranked Ladies within the Strawweight Division. The #6 ranked Strawweight, Mackenzie Dern (14-5 professional, 9-5 UFC) is searching for revenge within the rematch that dates again 5 years. She faces off in opposition to the #9 ranked Strawweight in Amanda Ribas (13-5 professional, 7-4 UFC) who received a unanimous resolution taking all three rounds unanimously the primary go round.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas II
This extremely anticipated bout was anticipated to happen final month on the last occasion of 2024, UFC Tampa within the co-main occasion. The bout was rescheduled to herald the New 12 months as the primary occasion on ESPN+. The intrigue is deserved with each girls having many traits in frequent:
Each girls characterize Brazil
They’re every 2-3 of their final 5 fights
They each maintain black belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu
Amanda Ribas and Mackenzie Dern have each competed at Flyweight, however have settled in at Strawweight
They every maintain 5 skilled MMA losses
Every girl is 31 years of age
Regardless of this, the adage “rematches never play out the same” shall be examined. However first, let’s talk about how the primary matchup transpired.
Amanda Ribas vs. Mackenzie Dern 1
Amanda Ribas received throughout all three judges’ scorecards 30-27. She dominated on the ft with a powerful set of straight punches and defensively sound grappling. Ribas remained calm and didn’t get sucked into Dern’s takedown makes an attempt. Dern did land some pictures when she was in a position to transfer ahead, however by the top of the struggle, it was clear she needed to get the struggle to the bottom.
When the scorecards have been introduced, no one was stunned. Each girls confirmed sportsmanship and have improved massively since.
Mackenzie Dern for one, was coming off having a toddler a couple of months prior. This actually impacted her cardio. Moreover, her most up-to-date struggle was at a catchweight of 123 kilos, and she or he had a handful of fights above the 115-pound restrict earlier than getting into the UFC; she was nonetheless transitioning right into a pure 115-pound fighter within the UFC right now. Since that struggle, Dern has labored on her hanging, and in her most up-to-date bout in opposition to Crazy Godinez, Mackenzie Dern placed on an incredible efficiency utilizing her hanging and grappling to get the most effective of Godinez.
For Amanda Ribas, she has grown her sport as nicely. Of their first matchup, Ribas was an excellent vary striker with nice Judo and Jiu-Jitsu. She was in a position to counter Dern’s tried takedowns and keep sturdy high management. Ribas additionally was in a position to management the hanging vary with very tight-knit counterstriking. Since then, we’ve seen her incorporate extra kicks and much more stance switches into her hanging. All this mixed along with her excessive stage of grappling that she will be able to fall again on.
So, who wins this struggle this time round?
How Mackenzie Dern Wins
For Mackenzie Dern to win this struggle within the rematch she ought to take so much from Ribas’ matchup with Maycee Barber on UFC Jacksonville. On this struggle, Ribas discovered a great deal of success. The place Dern ought to take classes from was her success in tight quarters with a violent barrage of elbows and knees.
Moreover, she must take her down. Within the first matchup, she was not in a position to chain takedowns and was promoting out for her single leg; she even tried to tug guard. If she will be able to chain her takedowns, Dern can win minutes on the bottom as Ribas likes to play off her again and can roll for loopy submissions just like the leg lock. The black belt, Dern, would really feel at house on the bottom with Ribas if she could possibly be in high place.
The opposite be aware to remove is that she must be prepared for a canine struggle. Barber reduce Amanda Ribas early within the struggle with an elbow after which obtained a reduce of her personal within the second spherical earlier than getting the stoppage. Dern must convey the stress and constantly be on the fuel pedal. It’s laborious to interrupt Ribas as confirmed by her five-round conflict with Rose Namajunas however, this shall be key for Mackenzie Dern to discover a totally different end result on this matchup.
Lastly, her finest means of discovering success is by countering Ribas as she will get wild. Regardless of being a really sensible and affected person fighter, she tends to go for giant strikes. Whether or not it’s a judo throw or a spinning kick, these are alternatives for Dern to beat her to positions by catching her off steadiness. She’s going to usually promote out for her massive strikes, and this could result in alternatives for Dern to win minutes. Catching Amanda Ribas in transition shall be important for Mackenzie Dern to get the struggle below her management.
How Amanda Ribas Wins
For Amanda Ribas to win this struggle, she must observe an analogous sport plan to her final struggle. Lately, we have now seen her get extra inventive along with her hanging in current fights. She ought to keep on with her sport plan from the final struggle which included being a affected person counter striker and sticking and transferring along with her jab. Regardless of being comfy on the bottom and having a black belt in her personal proper, Mackenzie Dern has high-level grappling and may catch her in transition.
If she does go to the bottom, she wants to remain sensible; just like the final time they fought. She ought to exert a variety of belly-to-belly stress. As well as, she wants to maneuver rapidly in transition and never promote out for any submissions. When Ribas appears for floor and pound, she ought to keep tight and make the most of elbows and brief strikes, so she doesn’t present Mackenzie Dern with a chance to seize a limb. If these don’t work, she ought to enable Dern to face again up and proceed to make the most of her hanging.
The important thing for Ribas is to not get introduced right into a brawl. If she will be able to management the place the struggle takes place, she is going to win this struggle equally to their first encounter. Her hanging will get higher every struggle so Amanda Ribas ought to depend on her lengthy weapons and constantly look to manage the cage.
Remaining Verdict
There may be much more at play on this rematch. As each girls have turned the nook on the age of 30, they each are operating out of time to make a title run. Regardless of each seeing losses of late, it has been in opposition to a really excessive stage of competitors and a win on this matchup ought to earn them a struggle vs a high 5 opponent subsequent.
With all elements thought-about, it appears clear that the adage “rematches never play out the same” shall be false on this matchup. Ribas can compete with Mackenzie Dern all over the place as confirmed in her current fights in addition to their first encounter. For Ribas, she will be able to win on the bottom if she is in high management and can win the hanging when they’re standing.
Dern has sneaky energy in her arms and a slick grappling sport. Ribas will must be cautious when she counters Dern’s grappling and can’t get caught however, if that doesn’t happen. This struggle will possible play out the identical means it did in October 2019.
Though it must be anticipated that Dern’s cardio, hanging, and wrestling have improved; Ribas has improved as nicely. They each have sturdy coaches of their nook, however Ribas has extra continuity in her nook. Ribas additionally lately went 5 rounds whereas Dern has not in her final 3 bouts.
Prediction: Amanda Ribas by Unanimous Resolution (49-46, 50-45, 50-45)
